Arlington,
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Sales Report
Arlington Home Sales Prospects: More than a Glass Half-Full
Predicting Home Sales: More Quandary
Than Certainty
Even the
least vigilant of Arlington’s
market-watchers had their antennae out last week, the traditional time of month
when real estate statistics are released from the most authoritative sources. National
trends in home sales frequently provide clues to the direction the Arlington market is likely to take—and with the spring
selling season already under way, this is the time of year when movements can
be more volatile than usual.
Last week’s data was less exciting than has been the
case in recent years—and what movement there was seemed to leave opinion-makers
perplexed. The Associated Press
writers put it this way:
“The housing market
enters the traditional spring buying season facing a quandary.”
When you are interested in clues to how home sales are
likely to fare, words like “quandary” don’t help. It was in fact
glass-half-full/glass-half-empty kind of news. You could see what you wanted to
see.
If you were a pessimistic
type, your predisposition might have been bolstered by The New York Times Headline, “Existing Home Sales Drop More Than
Expected.” There it was! Confirmation of a downturn in activity. Though you
could have admitted that the trend might not extend to every corner of the
country, the possibility that Arlington home
sales might now head south couldn’t be denied. The New York Times said so!
On the other hand, if you were among Arlington’s more numerous optimistic observers, reading the same news left you thinking that
the very same headline was actually slightly misleading. It was based on the
National Association of Realtors®
report that talked about home sales prices
continuing to rise. The “home sales drop” was only (as the headline actually
read) against what had been “expected.” Sales levels had been sizzling for
months, so expectations had been high (not among the pessimists, certainly). But
the numbers showed that existing home sales were actually 2.2% higher than a year
earlier!
Reading the entire NAR report could explain why The New York Times emerged with a
quandary. In it, readers learned that U.S. job growth “continues to hum along
at a robust pace” which could explain why “overall demand for buying is still
solid entering the busy spring season.” But then they learned that “anxiety
about the health of the economy is holding back a segment of would-be buyers.” On
one hand, there was the 48th consecutive month of “steadfast price
growth;” on the other, “unshakably low supply levels.” The share of first time
home buyers fell 30%; yet the share
of first time home buyers “is up 29%
from a year ago.”
The Times’ quandary
was certainly understandable. But although not much light may have been shed on
the prognosis for home sales in Arlington, a couple of factors could
have been deduced. In the coming months, home sales certainly won’t “be affected
by the large East Coast blizzard” that had impacted February numbers.
What is likely to
affect sales is the continuation of tantalizingly low 30-year, conventional
fixed-rate mortgage rates, “the lowest since April 2015.” If that kind of
encouragement has you interested in checking out the current crop of great Arlington home offerings, I hope you’ll forego the
quandary altogether—just give me a call!
